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Nonlinearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) Approach


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Working Paper

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Authors

Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo 
Doppelhofer, Gernot 

Abstract

We propose a Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach for assessing the existence and quantifying the effect of threshold effects in cross-country growth regressions in the presence of model uncertainty. The BAT method extends the Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach proposed by Sala-i-Martin, Doppelhofer, and Miller (2004) by allowing for uncertainty over nonlinear threshold effects. We apply our method to a set of determinants of long-term economic growth in the cross section of 88 countries. Our results suggest that when model uncertainty is taken into account there is no evidence for robust threshold effects caused by the Initial Income, measured by GDP capita in 1960, but that the Number of Years an Economy has Been Open is an important source of nonlinear effects on growth.

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Keywords

Model Uncertainty, Model Averaging, Threshold Estimation, Non-Linearities, Determinants of Economic Growth

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Publisher

Faculty of Economics

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