Repository logo
 

Two EGARCH models and one fat tail


Type

Working Paper

Change log

Authors

Harvey, Andrew 
Caivano, Michele 

Abstract

We compare two EGARCH models which belong to a new class of models in which the dynamics are driven by the score of the conditional distribution of the observations. Models of this kind are called dynamic conditional score (DCS) models and their form facilitates the development of a comprehensive and relatively straightforward theory for the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. The EGB2 distribution is light-tailed, but with higher kurtosis than the normal. Hence it is complementary to the fat-tailed t. The EGB2-EGARCH model gives a good fit to many exchange rate return series, prompting an investigation into the misleading conclusions liable to be drawn from tail index estimates.

Description

Keywords

Exchange rates; heavy tails; Hill's estimator, score; robustness; Student's t; tail index

Is Part Of

Publisher

Faculty of Economics

Publisher DOI

Publisher URL