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The big short: short selling activity and predictability in house prices

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Chauffaille Saffi, PA 
Vergara-Alert, C 

Abstract

We study how investors can use financial securities to speculate on the decrease of house prices. Unlike most asset types, houses are subject to high trading frictions and cannot be sold short directly. Using U.S. equity lending data from 2006 through 2013, we find evidence that an increase in the short selling activity of real estate investment trusts (REITs) forecasts a decrease in house prices in the subsequent month. The magnitude and significance of this effect vary with the geographical location of the REITs' underlying properties and with the housing cycle.

Description

Keywords

3801 Applied Economics, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, 38 Economics, 3502 Banking, Finance and Investment, 3504 Commercial Services

Journal Title

Real Estate Economics

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1080-8620
1540-6229

Volume Title

48

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell
Sponsorship
Saffi acknowledges the financial support provided by the Cambridge Endownment for Research in Finance (CERF) and Vergara-Alert the support of the Public-Private Sector Research Center at IESE, the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Ref. ECO2015-63711-P), and AGAUR (Project ref: 2014-SGR-1496).