OBJECTIVES: To assess whether initial or 12-18-month change in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) subchondral bone texture is predictive of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression over 36 months. METHODS: This was a nested case-control study including 122 knees/122 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) Bone Ancillary Study, who underwent MRI optimised for subchondral bone assessment at either the 30- or 36-month and 48-month OAI visits. Case knees (n = 61) had radiographic OA progression between the 36- and 72-month OAI visits, defined as ≥ 0.7 mm minimum medial tibiofemoral radiographic joint space (minJSW) loss. Control knees (n = 61) without radiographic OA progression were matched (1:1) to cases for age, sex, body mass index and initial medial minJSW. Texture analysis was performed on the medial femoral and tibial subchondral bone. We assessed the association of texture features with radiographic progression by creating a composite texture score using penalised logistic regression and calculating odds ratios. We evaluated the predictive performance of texture features for predicting radiographic progression using c-statistics. RESULTS: Initial (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 2.13 [1.41-3.40]) and 12- 18-month change (3.76 [2.04-7.82]) texture scores were significantly associated with radiographic OA progression. Combinations of texture features were significant predictors of radiographic progression using initial (c-statistic [95% confidence interval] = 0.65 [0.64-0.65], p = 0.003) and 12-18-month change (0.68 [0.68-0.68], p < 0.001) data. CONCLUSIONS: Initial and 12-18-month changes in MRI subchondral bone texture score were significantly associated with radiographic progression at 36 months, with better predictive performance for 12-18-month change in texture. These results suggest that texture analysis may be a useful biomarker of subchondral bone in OA. KEY POINTS: • Subchondral bone MRI texture analysis is a promising knee osteoarthritis imaging biomarker. • In this study, subchondral bone texture was associated with knee osteoarthritis progression. • This demonstrates predictive and concurrent validity of MRI subchondral bone texture analysis. • This method may be useful in clinical trials with interventions targeting bone.