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Afforestation’s potential to help Cambridgeshire reach net-zero by 2050

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Peer-reviewed

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Article

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Abstract

I present a preliminary assessment of afforestation’s ability to help Cambridgeshire reach net zero emissions by 2050. Considering 7 different planting scenarios with different tree species over 3,000 hectares (about 1% of the county), I calculate a maximum cumulative net sequestration of 1.44 Mt CO2 over the period 2020-2050, about 2.3% of the county’s projected total emissions over that period under an ambitious decarbonisation strategy (or about double the county’s projected emissions in the single year 2050). In addition, a methodology for calculating carbon sequestration and the associated abatement cost is presented, with sensitivity to land price and timber revenue explored. I calculate abatement costs of £20-50 per tonne CO2, considerably less than those from bio-energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), although it depends strongly on timber price. This suggests afforestation has the potential to be a cost-efficient method for contributing to Cambridgeshire’s ambitious climate change strategy, but significantly larger areas would need to be planted if it were chosen to be a major driver in reducing net emissions.

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Cambridge Journal of Science and Policy

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1

Publisher

Cambridge University Science and Policy Exchange

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