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Resurgent Ethnic Violence in Post-War Societies: A Comparative Assessment of Externally Guaranteed Consociational Experiments


Type

Thesis

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Authors

El Machnouk, Saleh 

Abstract

This thesis examines why violent ethnic conflict re-emerges following a power-sharing agreement in states that have witnessed civil wars. By surveying the post-war state-building experiences of Lebanon, Iraq, Northern Ireland and Bosnia, it evaluates and compares the record of consociational democracy under foreign supervision when deployed as a tool for conflict regulation. It seeks to build on existing accounts that emphasize exogenous or endogenous factors by contributing a comprehensive theory of post-war ethnic violence in consociational democracies. As such, it focuses on three complementary factors: Whether or not the power sharing agreement was inclusive in nature, whether the foreign guarantor’s role was constrained by selfish strategic interests, and whether the surrounding regional environment contributed constructively or destructively to peace and stability.

Through a comparative study of two positive cases, Lebanon and Iraq, as well as two negative cases, Bosnia and Northern Ireland, this thesis will identify the interdependent variables that led to a resurgence of ethnic violence in the former cases while allowing the latter to remain largely stable and peaceful. It thus seeks to challenge the traditional set of conditions required for the success of consociational experiments that have, through a long-established neglect of exogenous variables, produced erroneous predictions as to the possibility of renewed violence. Fundamentally, this thesis argues that three variables coalesce to produce a return to violence; the presence of a foreign guarantor whose selfish strategic interests extend beyond the mere successful implementation of the agreement, the purposeful exclusion of one of the main ethnic groups from the negotiation or implementation of the agreement, and the presence of an unconstructive regional environment in which malign foreign powers disrupt communal equilibrium.

This thesis analyses four case studies in separate chapters, examining the power-sharing agreements within the broader context of the post-war state-building process. Following an overview of the political and historical context of the power-sharing agreement, each chapter proceeds to survey the occurrence of strategic ethnic violence in the post-war era, after which the role of the guarantors, the inclusivity of the agreements, and the regional circumstances are thoroughly examined. An initial chapter provides the theoretical framework for the comparative research on consociational arrangements. The thesis concludes by drawing together the various experiences of consociation and exploring the broader implications of the argument presented.

This thesis makes a significant contribution to the consociational literature by comparatively and cross-regionally exploring the increasingly pervasive phenomenon of post-war power sharing with substantial international involvement. Through its wide-ranging approach combining endogenous and exogenous variables, it furthers the empirical and theoretical understanding of the prospects of successfully regulating ethnic conflicts in the twenty-first century.

Description

Date

2020-01-05

Advisors

van Houten, Pieter

Keywords

ethnic conflict, lebanon, northern ireland, bosnia, iraq, consociationalism, power sharing, state building, peace building

Qualification

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Awarding Institution

University of Cambridge