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The Impact of Including Costs and Outcomes of Dementia in a Health Economic Model to Evaluate Lifestyle Interventions to Prevent Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Thomas, Chloe 
Thokala, Praveen 
Lafortune, Louise 
Brayne, Carol 

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Economic evaluations of lifestyle interventions, which aim to prevent diabetes/cardiovascular disease (CVD), have not included dementia. Lifestyle interventions decrease dementia risk and extend life expectancy, leading to competing effects on health care costs. We aim to demonstrate the feasibility of including dementia in a public health cost-effectiveness analysis and quantify the overall impacts accounting for these competing effects. METHODS: The School for Public Health Research (SPHR) diabetes prevention model describes individuals' risk of type 2 diabetes, microvascular outcomes, CVD, congestive heart failure, cancer, osteoarthritis, depression, and mortality in England. In version 3.1, we adapted the model to include dementia using published data from primary care databases, health surveys, and trials of dementia to describe dementia incidence, diagnosis, and disease progression. We estimate the impact of dementia on lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained of the National Health Service diabetes prevention program (NHS DPP) from an NHS/personal social services perspective with 3 scenarios: 1) no dementia, 2) dementia only, and 3) reduced dementia risk. Subgroup, parameter, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The lifetime cost savings of the NHS DPP per patient were £145 in the no-dementia scenario, £121 in the dementia-only scenario, and £167 in the reduced dementia risk scenario. The QALY gains increased by 0.0006 in dementia only and 0.0134 in reduced dementia risk. Dementia did not alter the recommendation that the NHS/DPP is cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Including dementia into a model of lifestyle interventions was feasible but did not change policy recommendations or modify health economic outcomes. The impact on health economic outcomes was largest where a direct impact on dementia incidence was assumed, particularly in elderly populations.

Description

Keywords

cost-effectiveness analysis, dementia, non-communicable disease, public health, simulation, Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Dementia, Diabetes Mellitus, England, Humans, Male, Models, Economic, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Risk Reduction Behavior

Journal Title

Med Decis Making

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0272-989X
1552-681X

Volume Title

40

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research (SPHR). Grant Reference Number PD- SPH-2015