Dynamic Bayesian forecasting of AFL match results using the Skellam distribution
Accepted version
Peer-reviewed
Repository URI
Repository DOI
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Authors
Manderson, AA
Murray, K
Turlach, BA
Abstract
jats:titleSummary</jats:title>jats:pThe scoring and defensive abilities of Australian Rules Football teams change over time as a result of evolving player rosters, tactics and other management factors. We develop a dynamic model based on the Poisson difference (Skellam) distribution which simultaneously models the two different point scoring mechanisms in Australian Rules Football, the motivation for which comes from work on predicting outcomes in soccer matches. Our model is developed in a Bayesian framework and is fitted using the jats:styled-contentStan</jats:styled-content> modelling language. Model validation is performed on the 2015 Australian Football league (AFL) home and away season.</jats:p>
Description
Keywords
Australian rules football, Bayesian hierarchical models, dynamic models, Skellam, Stan
Journal Title
AUSTRALIAN & NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF STATISTICS
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
1369-1473
1467-842X
1467-842X
Volume Title
60
Publisher
Wiley
Publisher DOI
Rights
All rights reserved