Forecasting Urban Residential Stock Turnover Dynamics using System Dynamics and Bayesian Model Averaging
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Authors
Zhou, W.
O’Neill, E.
Moncaster, A.
Reiner D.
Guthrie, P.
Abstract
Knowing the size of the building stock is perhaps the most basic determinant in assessing energy use in buildings. However, official statistics on urban residential stock for many countries are piecemeal at best. Previous studies estimating stock size and
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Keywords
building stock, lifetime distribution, System Dynamics, Bayesian Model Averaging, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, embodied energy, operational energy, China
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Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge