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Asynchrony between virus diversity and antibody selection limits influenza virus evolution.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Petrova, Velislava N 
Rossine, Fernando W 

Abstract

Seasonal influenza viruses create a persistent global disease burden by evolving to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. New antigenic variants have a substantial selective advantage at the population level, but these variants are rarely selected within-host, even in previously immune individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that the temporal asynchrony between within-host virus exponential growth and antibody-mediated selection could limit within-host antigenic evolution. If selection for new antigenic variants acts principally at the point of initial virus inoculation, where small virus populations encounter well-matched mucosal antibodies in previously-infected individuals, there can exist protection against reinfection that does not regularly produce observable new antigenic variants within individual infected hosts. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for how virus antigenic evolution can be highly selective at the global level but nearly neutral within-host. They also suggest new avenues for improving influenza control.

Description

Funder: H2020 European Research Council; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663; Grant(s): Naviflu:818353

Keywords

Influenza virus, antibody-mediated selection, cross scale evolutionary dynamics, evolutionary biology, infectious disease, microbiology, virus, Antibodies, Neutralizing, Antibodies, Viral, Biological Evolution, Genetic Variation, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype, Influenza A virus, Influenza, Human, Models, Statistical, Selection, Genetic, Virion

Journal Title

Elife

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2050-084X
2050-084X

Volume Title

9

Publisher

eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd