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Anytime parallel tempering

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Marie d’Avigneau, A  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8229-6850
Singh, SS 
Murray, LM 

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pDeveloping efficient MCMC algorithms is indispensable in Bayesian inference. In parallel tempering, multiple interacting MCMC chains run to more efficiently explore the state space and improve performance. The multiple chains advance independently through local moves, and the performance enhancement steps are exchange moves, where the chains pause to exchange their current sample amongst each other. To accelerate the independent local moves, they may be performed simultaneously on multiple processors. Another problem is then encountered: depending on the MCMC implementation and inference problem, local moves can take a varying and random amount of time to complete. There may also be infrastructure-induced variations, such as competing jobs on the same processors, which arises in cloud computing. Before exchanges can occur, all chains must complete the local moves they are engaged in to avoid introducing a potentially substantial bias (Proposition 1). To solve this issue of randomly varying local move completion times in multi-processor parallel tempering, we adopt the Anytime Monte Carlo framework of (Murray, L. M., Singh, S., Jacob, P. E., and Lee, A.: Anytime Monte Carlo. jats:italicarXiv preprint</jats:italic><jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1612.03319">arXiv:1612.03319</jats:ext-link>, (2016): we impose real-time deadlines on the parallel local moves and perform exchanges at these deadlines without any processor idling. We show our methodology for exchanges at real-time deadlines does not introduce a bias and leads to significant performance enhancements over the naïve approach of idling until every processor’s local moves complete. The methodology is then applied in an ABC setting, where an Anytime ABC parallel tempering algorithm is derived for the difficult task of estimating the parameters of a Lotka–Volterra predator-prey model, and similar efficiency enhancements are observed.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC ), Parallel tempering, Anytime Monte Carlo, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC ), Likelihood-free inference

Journal Title

Statistics and Computing

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0960-3174
1573-1375

Volume Title

31

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
EPSRC (1766519)
ESPRC Doctoral Training Award