The government’s Nationally Determined Contribution submitted under the Paris Agreement for COP26 is a commitment to a 45% reduction in UK emissions from 2018 to 2030. At COP26, the UK Government will pledge to reduce UK emissions by 68% relative to 1990 emission levels. This important target is in line with recommendations from the IPPC which has determined that we need to halve planetary emissions this decade to keep warming below 1.5°C.1 Given progress in reducing UK emissions by 42% at the time the commitment was announced, the government’s target for 2030 translates to a reduction in UK annual emissions by 45% from 2018. According to the Climate Change Committee, the UK is currently not on track to meets its 2030 emission target. This report, Minus 45, describes a realisation of that pledge, based on physical changes and the policy interventions required to bring them about.