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Double-Estimation-Friendly Inference for High-Dimensional Misspecified Models

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Shah, RD 
Bühlmann, P 

Abstract

All models may be wrong---but that is not necessarily a problem for inference. Consider the standard t-test for the significance of a variable X for predicting response Y whilst controlling for p other covariates Z in a random design linear model. This yields correct asymptotic type~I error control for the null hypothesis that X is conditionally independent of Y given Z under an \emph{arbitrary} regression model of Y on (X,Z), provided that a linear regression model for X on Z holds. An analogous robustness to misspecification, which we term the ``double-estimation-friendly'' (DEF) property, also holds for Wald tests in generalised linear models, with some small modifications.

In this expository paper we explore this phenomenon, and propose methodology for high-dimensional regression settings that respects the DEF property. We advocate specifying (sparse) generalised linear regression models for both Y and the covariate of interest X; our framework gives valid inference for the conditional independence null if either of these hold. In the special case where both specifications are linear, our proposal amounts to a small modification of the popular debiased Lasso test. We also investigate constructing confidence intervals for the regression coefficient of X via inverting our tests; these have coverage guarantees even in partially linear models where the contribution of Z to Y can be arbitrary. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology.

Description

Keywords

49 Mathematical Sciences, 4905 Statistics

Journal Title

Statistical Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0883-4237
2168-8745

Volume Title

Publisher

Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Sponsorship
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N031938/1)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/R013381/1)