erlERLNALEnvironmental Research LettersERLEnviron. Res. Lett.1748-9326IOP Publishingerlac4a3410.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34ac4a34ERL-112650.R2LetterClimate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system modelsZanisProdromos1 * zanis@geo.auth.grAkritidisDimitris1TurnockSteven23NaikVaishali4SzopaSophie5GeorgouliasAristeidis K1BauerSusanne E60000-0002-0373-3918DeushiMakoto7HorowitzLarry W4KeebleJames89Le SagerPhilippe10O’ConnorFiona M20000-0002-8451-2411OshimaNaga7TsigaridisKonstantinos611van NoijeTwan10 Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom University of Leeds Met Office Strategic (LUMOS) Research Group, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States of America Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NY, United States of America Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America

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This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

climate changesurface ozonebenefitpenaltyCMIP6ESMsDefraGA01101EU641816Hadley CentreBEISNERCNCASR8/H12/83/003Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of JapanJPMXD1420318865Ministry of the Environment, JapanMLIT1753KAKENHIJP18H03363JP18H05292JP19K12312JP20K04070Technology DevelopmentJPMEERF20202003JPMEERF20205001Met Officehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000847 Japan Society for the Promotion of Sciencehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691 Public Investment Program of the Ministry of Development and Investments of Greececcc1748-9326/22/024014+19$33.00printedPrinted in the UKcrossmarkyes