Editorial responsibility: F. Sigmundsson
The impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate are increasingly well understood, but the mirror question of how climate changes affect volcanic systems and processes, which we term “climate-volcano impacts”, remains understudied. Accelerating research on this topic is critical in view of rapid climate change driven by anthropogenic activities. Over the last two decades, we have improved our understanding of how mass distribution on the Earth’s surface, in particular changes in ice and water distribution linked to glacial cycles, affects mantle melting, crustal magmatic processing and eruption rates. New hypotheses on the impacts of climate change on eruption processes have also emerged, including how eruption style and volcanic plume rise are affected by changing surface and atmospheric conditions, and how volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle, radiative forcing and climate impacts are modulated by background climate conditions. Future improvements in past climate reconstructions and current climate observations, volcanic eruption records and volcano monitoring, and numerical models all have a role in advancing our understanding of climate-volcano impacts. Important mechanisms remain to be explored, such as how changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation will affect the volcanic ash life cycle. Fostering a holistic and interdisciplinary approach to climate-volcano impacts is critical to gain a full picture of how ongoing climate changes may affect the environmental and societal impacts of volcanic activity.
Bien que l’impact climatique des éruptions volcaniques soit de mieux en mieux compris, la question de l’impact des changement climatiques sur les processus volcaniques, ou “impacts climat-volcans”, reste largement inexplorée. Compte tenu de la rapidité du changement climatique anthropique, il est critique d'améliorer la compréhension des impacts climat-volcans. Les vingt dernières années de recherche ont permis de mieux charactériser l’impact de la distribution surfacique de masse, par exemple liée aux glaciers et océans, sur les processus tels que la fonte du manteau, la cristallisation magmatiques et les taux éruptifs. De nouveaux mécanismes d’impacts climat-volcans ont aussi été suggérés, y compris l’influence des changements des conditions de surface et atmosphériques sur les styles éruptifs et la dynamique des panaches volcaniques. Le cycle de vie des aérosols volcaniques ainsi que leur forçage radiatif et impacts climatiques sont aussi nuancés par les conditions climatiques dans lesquelles une éruption se produit. Les progrès à venir sur les observations actuelles et reconstructions passées du climat et des éruptions historiques, sur les dispositifs de surveillance des volcans, ainsi que sur les modèles informatiques climatiques et volcaniques vont permettre de mieux comprendre les impacts climat-volcans. Certains mécanismes clés restent mécompris, par exemple l’impact des changements de circulation du vent et de précipitation sur le cycle de vie des cendres volcaniques. Une approche holistique et interdisciplinaire est critique pour établir une vision d’ensemble de l’effet du changement climatique sur les impacts environnementaux et sociaux des éruptions volcaniques.
This paper constitutes part of a topical collection: Looking Backwards and Forwards in Volcanology: A Collection of Perspectives on the Trajectory of a Science
Volcanic eruptions shape Earth’s landscapes, have built up Earth’s atmosphere and are powerful drivers of environmental and climate change. It has long been known that large volcanic eruptions can affect climate, which we refer to as “volcano-climate impacts”, and this constitutes a major research topic (Marshall et al.,
In this perspective paper, we first highlight progress made over the last two decades in understanding climate-volcano impacts, and then discuss opportunities and challenges for the next decade. The paper is structured around three broad categories of volcanic and magmatic processes:
Owing to the complexities of volcanic systems, some of the processes we discuss are not exclusively associated with a single category proposed above, though an attempt has been made to categorise processes by their dominant association. Last, we assess the level of confidence of each climate-volcano impact mechanism discussed using the following classification:
Owing to the emerging nature of the climate-volcano impact field, these qualitative confidence levels are based on our own judgement rather than on quantitative analysis. We report them in square brackets and italics after each mechanism discussed.
Figure Schematics illustrating climate-volcano impacts associated with pre-eruptive processes (“
The impacts of ice unloading are controlled by the spatial extent and thickness of ice, the magnitude of ice loss and lithospheric thickness, moderated by the rheology of the crust and mantle (Jull and McKenzie,
Continued global warming is also projected to cause regional and global increases in extreme rainfall over the next century (Fischer et al.
Figure Schematics illustrating climate-volcano impacts associated with pre-eruptive processes (“
Changes in the surface distribution of water and ice may also alter syn-eruptive processes and the SO2 life cycle in the volcanic column and cloud via direct magma-water interaction (i.e. hydrovolcanism)
Climate-volcano impacts affecting post-eruptive processes are summarised in Fig. Schematics illustrating climate-volcano impacts associated with pre-eruptive processes (“
Over the next decade, continuous improvement in both climate and volcanological observations and past records will advance our understanding of processes through which climate affects volcanic systems, as well as how climate-volcano impacts unfolded in the past. Better spatio-temporal coverage and resolution of spaceborne observations of precipitation and ice mass (e.g. Dussaillant et al.,
Improvements in numerical models will also be required to better understand climate-volcano impacts. Thermo-mechanical models studying the effect of climate change on magma plumbing systems should integrate the complex rheology associated with the new vision of trans-crustal magmatic systems (Cashman et al,
Regardless of improvements in observations and models, some climate-induced changes in volcanic processes may be subtle compared to observational uncertainties and variability in eruption style and conditions. The low recurrence rate of large explosive eruptions (e.g. 50–100 years for Volcanic Explosivity Index 6, Newhall et al.,
Lastly, a number of potential yet critical climate-volcano impacts remain unexplored, such as the impact of climate change on processes related to lava flows, non-sulfur gases (e.g. halogens) or ash. The ash question is particularly motivated by implications for hazard management and by the fact that current atmospheric circulation patterns cannot account for the spatial distribution of tephra deposits during the Pliocene and Pleistocene glacial periods (Sigurdsson et al., 1990; Lacasse,
The recently released Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that depending on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, the global surface temperature is very likely to be higher by 1.0 °C to 5.7 °C by 2100 compared to 1850–1900 (IPCC,
We sincerely thank Alan Robock and Michelle Parks for their feedback that helped to improve our manuscript, and Claire Witham and Lauren Marshall for their insightful comments on an early version of this paper.
Conceptualization: T. J. A. with inputs from all authors.
Figures: J. I. F. with inputs from all authors.
Writing: All authors.
T. J. A. acknowledges support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 835939, and from the Sidney Sussex college through a Junior Research Fellowship. C. R. R. was funded through an Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery grant to A. M. Jellinek. P. O. H. is supported by a Birmingham Fellowship. D. M. P. is supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Tectonics (COMET). A. S. was funded by NERC grants NE/S000887/1 (VOL-CLIM) and NE/S00436X/1 (V-PLUS). The efforts of J. Fasullo were supported by NASA Award 80NSSC17K0565, by NSF Award #AGS-1419571, and by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1947282.
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The authors declare no competing interests.