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dc.contributor.authorMohaddes, Kamiaren_GB
dc.date.accessioned2012-04-20T11:45:59Z
dc.date.available2012-04-20T11:45:59Z
dc.date.issued2012-03-02en_GB
dc.identifier.otherCWPE1212
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.dspace.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/242221
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/242221
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops a novel approach by which to identify the price of oil at the time of depletion; the so-called terminal price of oil. It is shown that while the terminal price is independent of both GDP growth and the price elasticity of energy demand, it is dependent on the world real interest rate and the total life-time stock of oil resources, as well as on the marginal extraction and scarcity cost parameters. The theoretical predictions of this model are evaluated using data on the cost of extraction, cumulative production, and proven reserves. The predicted terminal prices seem sensible for a range of parameters and variables, as illustrated by the sensitivity analysis. Using the terminal price of oil, we calculate the time to depletion, and determine the extraction and price profiles over the life-time of the resource. The extraction profiles generated seem to be in line with the actual production and the predicted prices are generally in line with those currently observed.en_GB
dc.publisherFaculty of Economics
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCambridge Working Papers in Economics
dc.rightsAll Rights Reserveden
dc.rights.urihttps://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/en
dc.subjectOil prices and extractionen_GB
dc.subjectTerminal price of oilen_GB
dc.subjectTime to depletionen_GB
dc.subjectNonrenewable resourcesen_GB
dc.subjectOil demand estimationsen_GB
dc.subjectOil extraction costs.en_GB
dc.titleEconometric Modelling of World Oil Supplies: Terminal Price and the Time to Depletionen_GB
dc.typeWorking Paperen_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.5588
dc.identifier.urlhttp://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/dae/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1212.pdf


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