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Forecasting errors in the averseness of apologizing


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Type

Article

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Authors

Leunissen, JM 
De Cremer, D 
van Dijke, M 
Reinders Folmer, CP 

Abstract

Apologizing is often seen as the appropriate response after a transgression for perpetrators. Yet, despite the positive effects that apologies elicit after situations of conflict, they are not always delivered easily. We argue that this is due—at least in part—to perpetrators overestimating the averseness of apologizing, thus committing a forecasting error. Across two laboratory experiments and one autobiographical recall study, we demonstrate that perpetrators overestimate the averseness they will experience when apologizing compared to the averseness they experience when they actually apologize. Moreover, we show that this effect is driven by a misconstrual of the effects of an apology. Perpetrators overestimate the potentially negative effects of apologizing while simultaneously underestimating the potentially positive effects of apologizing. This forecasting error may have a negative effect on the initiation of the reconciliation process, due to perpetrators believing that apologizing is more averse than it actually is.

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Keywords

Apologies, Conflict resolution, Forecasting errors, Perpetrators, Reconciliation

Journal Title

Social Justice Research

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0885-7466
1573-6725

Volume Title

27

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC