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Eliminating bovine tuberculosis in cattle and badgers: insight from a dynamic model.


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Authors

Brooks-Pollock, Ellen  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5984-4932
Wood, James LN 

Abstract

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is a multi-species infection that commonly affects cattle and badgers in Great Britain. Despite years of study, the impact of badgers on BTB incidence in cattle is poorly understood. Using a two-host transmission model of BTB in cattle and badgers, we find that published data and parameter estimates are most consistent with a system at the threshold of control. The most consistent explanation for data obtained from cattle and badger populations includes within-host reproduction numbers close to 1 and between-host reproduction numbers of approximately 0.05. In terms of controlling infection in cattle, reducing cattle-to-cattle transmission is essential. In some regions, even large reductions in badger prevalence can have a modest impact on cattle infection and a multi-stranded approach is necessary that also targets badger-to-cattle transmission directly. The new perspective highlighted by this two-host approach provides insight into the control of BTB in Great Britain.

Description

Keywords

bovine tuberculosis, disease control, transmission dynamics, type reproduction numbers, Animals, Cattle, Disease Reservoirs, Incidence, Models, Biological, Mustelidae, Mycobacterium bovis, Prevalence, Tuberculosis, Bovine, United Kingdom

Journal Title

Proc Biol Sci

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0962-8452
1471-2954

Volume Title

282

Publisher

The Royal Society
Sponsorship
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/I012192/1)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/H027270/1)
The work and E.B.-P.’s fellowship was funded by the EPSRC (EP/H027270/1). J.L.N.W. is supported by the Alborada Trust, the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, US Department of Homeland Security, the Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health, the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976) and by BBSRC grant BB/I012192/1.