Endogeneity analysis of output synchronization in the current and prospective EMU
Publication Date
2015-10-08Journal Title
JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies
ISSN
0021-9886
Publisher
Wiley
Volume
54
Pages
525-543
Language
English
Type
Article
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Arestis, P., & Phelps, P. (2015). Endogeneity analysis of output synchronization in the current and prospective EMU. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 54 525-543. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12303
Abstract
The sustainability of European economic and monetary union (EMU) remains an important issue in light of existing plans for enlargement. This paper conducts an endogeneity analysis of output synchronization, based on panel data estimation from 1994-2013, for different country-groups, including core, periphery, central and eastern European countries, northern European and the prospective candidate countries, which are expected to adopt the euro over the coming years. The quantification of trade-related and direct spillover channels associated with monetary integration provides insight into the relative importance of direct and indirect synchronization gains arising from EMU membership. The use of amplitude and concordance measures of synchronization and a range of estimators enhances robustness. There are important endogeneity implications which emerge from our analysis.
Keywords
international, business cycle, synchronization, trade intensity, endogeneity
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12303
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/249021
Rights
Licence:
http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved