Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens.
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Authors
Lloyd-Smith, James O
Funk, Sebastian
McLean, Angela R
Riley, Steven
Wood, James LN
Abstract
Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens, emphasizing the interface between models and data.
Description
Keywords
Cross-species spillover transmission, Emerging infectious diseases, Host jump, Infectious disease dynamics, Zoonosis, Animals, Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Disease Reservoirs, Humans, Models, Statistical, Population Surveillance, Species Specificity, Stochastic Processes, Zoonoses
Journal Title
Epidemics
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
1755-4365
1878-0067
1878-0067
Volume Title
10
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Publisher DOI
Sponsorship
European Commission (278976)
We acknowledge support from the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) programme of the Science and Technology Directory, Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health. JLS was also supported by the National Science Foundation (EF-0928987 and OCE-1335657) and the De Logi Chair in Biological Sciences. SF was supported by a UK Medical Research Council Career Development Award in Biostatistics. SR was supported by: Wellcome Trust Project Award 093488/Z/10/Z; R01 TW008246-01 from Fogarty International Centre; and The Medical Research Council (UK, Project Grant MR/J008761/1). JLNW was also supported by the Alborada Trust and the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976).