The ignition characteristics of a premixed bluff-body burner under lean conditions were investigated experimentally and numerically with a physical model focusing on ignition probability. Visualisation of the flame with a 5 kHz OH* chemiluminescence camera confirmed that successful ignitions were those associated with the movement of the kernel upstream, consistent with previous work in non-premixed systems. Performing many separate ignition trials at the same spark position and flow conditions resulted in a quantification of the ignition probability P_ign, which was found to decrease with increasing distance downstream of the bluff body and a decrease in equivalence ratio. Flows corresponding to flames close to the blow-off limit could not be ignited, although such flames were stable if reached from a richer already ignited condition. A detailed comparison with the local Karlovitz number and the mean velocity showed that regions of high P_ign are associated with low Ka and negative bulk velocity (i.e. towards the bluff body), although a direct correlation was not possible. A modelling effort that takes convection and localised flame quenching into account by tracking stochastic virtual flame particles, previously validated for non-premixed and spray ignition, was used to estimate the ignition probability. The applicability of this approach to premixed flows was first evaluated by investigating the model’s flame propagation mechanism in a uniform turbulence field, which showed that the model reproduces the bending behaviour of the S_T -versus-u' curve. Then ignition simulations of the bluff-body burner were carried out. The ignition probability map was computed and it was found that the model reproduces all main trends found in the experimental study.