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Robust time series models with trend and seasonal components


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Authors

Caivano, M 
Harvey, A 
Luati, A 

Abstract

We describe observation driven time series models for Student-t and EGB2 conditional distributions in which the signal is a linear function of past values of the score of the conditional distribution. These specifications produce models that are easy to implement and deal with outliers by what amounts to a soft form of trimming in the case of t and a soft form of Winsorizing in the case of EGB2. We show how a model with trend and seasonal components can be used as the basis for a seasonal adjustment procedure. The methods are illustrated with US and Spanish data.

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Keywords

Fat tails, EGB2, Score, Robustness, Student's t, Trimming, Winsorizing

Journal Title

SERIEs

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1869-4187
1869-4195

Volume Title

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC