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THE MYSTERY OF THE PRINTING PRESS: MONETARY POLICY AND SELF-FULFILLING DEBT CRISES

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Corsetti, Giancarlo  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8965-9853
Dedola, L 

Abstract

We study the mechanism by which unconventional (balance-sheet) monetary policy can rule out self-fulfilling sovereign default in a model with optimizing but discretionary fiscal and monetary policymakers. By purchasing sovereign debt, the central bank effectively swaps risky government paper for monetary liabilities only exposed to inflation risk, thus yielding a lower interest rate. We characterize a critical threshold for central bank purchases beyond which, absent fundamental fiscal stress, the government strictly prefers primary surplus adjustment to default. Since default may still occur for fundamental reasons, however, the central bank faces the risk of losses on sovereign debt holdings, which may generate inefficient inflation. This risk does not undermine the credibility of a backstop, nor the ability of a central bank to pursue its inflation objectives when the latter enjoys fiscal backing or fiscal authorities are sufficiently averse to inflation.

Description

Keywords

sovereign risk and default, lender of last resort, seigniorage, inflationary financing

Journal Title

Journal of the European Economic Association

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1542-4766
1542-4774

Volume Title

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)
Sponsorship
Giancarlo Corsetti acknowledges the generous support of the Keynes Fellowship at Cambridge University,the Cambridge-Inet Institute at Cambridge, and the Centre For Macroeconomics.