Repository logo
 

The propensity to cycle tool: An open source online system for sustainable transport planning

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Lovelace, R 
Goodman, A 
Aldred, R 
Berkoff, N 
Abbas, A 

Abstract

© 2016 Robin Lovelace, Anna Goodman, Rachel Aldred, Nikolai Berkoff, Ali Abbas, and James Woodcock.Getting people cycling is an increasingly common objective in transport planning institutions worldwide. A growing evidence base indicates that high quality infrastructure can boost local cycling rates. Yet for infrastructure and other cycling measures to be effective, it is important to intervene in the right places, such as along ‘desire lines’ of high latent demand. This creates the need for tools and methods to help answer the question ‘where to build?’. Following a brief review of the policy and research context related to this question, this paper describes the design, features and potential applications of such a tool. The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) is an online, interactive planning support system that was initially developed to explore and map cycling potential across England (see www.pct.bike). Based on origin-destination data it models cycling levels at area, desire line, route and route network levels, for current levels of cycling, and for scenario-based ‘cycling futures.’ Four scenarios are presented, including ‘Go Dutch’ and ‘Ebikes,’ which explore what would happen if English people had the same propensity to cycle as Dutch people and the potential impact of electric cycles on cycling uptake. The cost effectiveness of investment depends not only on the number of additional trips cycled, but on wider impacts such as health and carbon benefits. The PCT reports these at area, desire line, and route level for each scenario. The PCT is open source, facilitating the creation of scenarios and deployment in new contexts. We conclude that the PCT illustrates the potential of online tools to inform transport decisions and raises the wider issue of how models should be used in transport planning.

Description

Keywords

3509 Transportation, Logistics and Supply Chains, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, Bioengineering, 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Journal Title

Journal of Transport and Land Use

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1938-7849
1938-7849

Volume Title

10

Publisher

World Society for Transport and Land Use Research,
Sponsorship
Medical Research Council (MR/K023187/1)
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/M500409/1)
EPSRC (EP/K503757/1)
Department for Transport (DfT) (SO17859)
Medical Research Council (MR/K021796/1)
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/K004549/1)
Wellcome Trust (087636/Z/08/Z)
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/G007462/1)
The work presented was funded by the Department for Transport (contract no. RM5019SO7766: “Provision of Research Programme into Cycling: Propensity to Cycle”), with contract facilitation and project management by Brook Lyndhurst in Phase 1, and by Atkins in Phase 2. RL’s contribution was supported by the Consumer Data Research Centre (ESRC grant number ES/L011891/1). JW’s contribution was supported by an MRC Population Health Scientist Fellowship. JW’s and AA’s contributions were supported by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence funded by the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), and the Wellcome Trust. AG’s contribution was supported by an NIHR post-doctoral fellowship. The views reported in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the DfT, Brook Lyndhurst, Atkins the NIHR, the NHS or the Department for Health.