Modelling the future mass balance of glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen, Svalbard for a range of socio-economic trajectories

Abstract

Spitsbergen, Svalbard, is covered by approximately 22,000 km2 of glaciers, which are particularly sensitive to the enhanced global warming expected over the region (Nuth et al., 2010; Miao et al., 2014). Loss of these glaciers has global, regional and local implications. The study transiently models the 2006-2100 climatic mass balance of glaciers in Northwest Spitsbergen for different socio-economic scenarios using a low-complexity, tractable approach. Glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen is projected to experience 31.3 ? 17.3% volume loss (1.11 ? 0.61 mm of sea level rise) from 2006-2100. The model represents the future patterns well but constantly underestimates volume loss. Overall the study emphasises the uncertain future for glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen, and the place for low-complexity modelling in current research.