Clustered multistate models with observation level random effects, mover–stayer effects and dynamic covariates: modelling transition intensities and sojourn times in a study of psoriatic arthritis
Tom, Brian Dermot
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics
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Yiu, S., Tom, B. D., & Farewell, V. Clustered multistate models with observation level random effects, mover–stayer effects and dynamic covariates: modelling transition intensities and sojourn times in a study of psoriatic arthritis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12235
In psoriatic arthritis, it is important to understand the joint activity (represented by swelling and pain) and damage processes because both are related to severe physical disability. The paper aims to provide a comprehensive investigation into both processes occurring over time, in particular their relationship, by specifying a joint multistate model at the individual hand joint level, which also accounts for many of their important features. As there are multiple hand joints, such an analysis will be based on the use of clustered multistate models. Here we consider an observation level random-effects structure with dynamic covariates and allow for the possibility that a subpopulation of patients is at minimal risk of damage. Such an analysis is found to provide further understanding of the activity–damage relationship beyond that provided by previous analyses. Consideration is also given to the modelling of mean sojourn times and jump probabilities. In particular, a novel model parameterization which allows easily interpretable covariate effects to act on these quantities is proposed.
clustered processes, jump probabilities, mover–stayer model, multistate model, psoriatic arthritis, sojourn times
This research was financially supported by grants from the UK Medical Research Council (unit programme numbers U105261167 and MC UP 1302/3).
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External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12235
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/265128