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Modeling Virus Coinfection to Inform Management of Maize Lethal Necrosis in Kenya.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Hilker, Frank M 
Allen, Linda JS 
Bokil, Vrushali A 
Briggs, Cheryl J 
Feng, Zhilan 

Abstract

Maize lethal necrosis (MLN) has emerged as a serious threat to food security in sub-Saharan Africa. MLN is caused by coinfection with two viruses, Maize chlorotic mottle virus and a potyvirus, often Sugarcane mosaic virus. To better understand the dynamics of MLN and to provide insight into disease management, we modeled the spread of the viruses causing MLN within and between growing seasons. The model allows for transmission via vectors, soil, and seed, as well as exogenous sources of infection. Following model parameterization, we predict how management affects disease prevalence and crop performance over multiple seasons. Resource-rich farmers with large holdings can achieve good control by combining clean seed and insect control. However, crop rotation is often required to effect full control. Resource-poor farmers with smaller holdings must rely on rotation and roguing, and achieve more limited control. For both types of farmer, unless management is synchronized over large areas, exogenous sources of infection can thwart control. As well as providing practical guidance, our modeling framework is potentially informative for other cropping systems in which coinfection has devastating effects. Our work also emphasizes how mathematical modeling can inform management of an emerging disease even when epidemiological information remains scanty. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .

Description

Keywords

Agriculture, Coinfection, Insect Control, Kenya, Models, Theoretical, Plant Diseases, Potyvirus, Seeds, Tombusviridae, Zea mays

Journal Title

Phytopathology

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0031-949X
1943-7684

Volume Title

107

Publisher

Scientific Societies
Sponsorship
This work was conducted as a part of the Multiscale Vectored Plant Viruses Working Group at the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) through NSF Award number DBI-1300426, with additional support from The University of Tennessee, Knoxville.