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Does fiscal consolidation promote economic growth and employment? Evidence from the PIIGGS countries

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Kaya, A 
Şen, H 

Abstract

Using annual data over the period 1980–2014, this paper attempts to provide an answer to the question of whether fiscal consolidation promotes growth and employment in the context of the PIIGGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Great Britain, and Spain) by using the Bootstrap Granger causality analysis proposed by Kónya (2006), which allows testing for causality on each individual country separately, and by accounting for dependence across countries. Our findings indicate that in no country considered does fiscal consolidation promote growth. However, fiscal consolidation negatively affects employment in Portugal and Italy, whereas it positively influences employment in Great Britain. Based on our findings, we may suggest that the effects of fiscal consolidation on employment produce mixed results, varying from country to country.

Description

Keywords

fiscal consolidation, growth, employment, PIIGGS countries, panel Granger causality analysis

Journal Title

European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2052-7764
2052-7772

Volume Title

Publisher

Edward Elgar Publishing
Sponsorship
Ayşe Kaya gratefully acknowledges that she received financial assistance from TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) under BIDEB-2219 project during her study at Cambridge University, UK.