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Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Change log

Authors

Geraci, MV 
Gnabo, JY 

Abstract

jats:pWe propose a market-based framework that exploits time-varying parameter vector autoregressions to estimate the dynamic network of financial spillover effects. We apply it to financials in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and estimate interconnectedness at the sectoral and institutional levels. At the sectoral level, we uncover two main events in terms of interconnectedness: the Long-Term Capital Management crisis and the 2008 financial crisis. After these crisis events, we find a gradual decrease in interconnectedness, not observable using the classical rolling-window approach. At the institutional level, our framework delivers more stable interconnectedness rankings than other comparable market-based measures.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

financial interconnectedness, time-varying parameter, systemic risk

Journal Title

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0022-1090
1756-6916

Volume Title

53

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Sponsorship
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) (unknown)
Communauté Française de Belgique