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Development of a Cancer Risk Prediction Tool for Use in the UK Primary Care and Community Settings.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Lophatananon, Artitaya 
Usher-Smith, Juliet  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8501-2531
Campbell, Jackie 
Warcaba, Joanne 
Silarova, Barbora 

Abstract

Several multivariable risk prediction models have been developed to asses an individual's risk of developing specific cancers. Such models can be used in a variety of settings for prevention, screening, and guiding investigations and treatments. Models aimed at predicting future disease risk that contains lifestyle factors may be of particular use for targeting health promotion activities at an individual level. This type of cancer risk prediction is not yet available in the UK. We have adopted the approach used by the well-established U.S.-derived "YourCancerRisk" model for use in the UK population, which allow users to quantify their individual risk of developing individual cancers relative to the population average risk. The UK version of "YourCancerRisk" computes 10-year cancer risk estimates for 11 cancers utilizing UK figures for prevalence of risk factors and cancer incidence. Because the prevalence of risk factors and the incidence rates for cancer are different between the U.S. and the UK population, this UK model provides more accurate estimates of risks for a UK population. Using an example of breast cancer and data from UK Biobank cohort, we demonstrate that the individual risk factor estimates are similar for the U.S. and UK populations. Assessment of the performance and validation of the multivariate model predictions based on a binary score confirm the model's applicability. The model can be used to estimate absolute and relative cancer risk for use in Primary Care and community settings and is being used in the community to guide lifestyle change. Cancer Prev Res; 10(7); 421-30. ©2017 AACR.

Description

Keywords

Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Breast Neoplasms, Child, Cohort Studies, Female, Health Promotion, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Neoplasms, Prevalence, Primary Health Care, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, United Kingdom, United States, Young Adult

Journal Title

Cancer Prev Res (Phila)

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1940-6207
1940-6215

Volume Title

10

Publisher

American Association for Cancer Research (AACR)
Sponsorship
Cancer Research UK (20818)
Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12015/4)