External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank.
British journal of cancer
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Usher-Smith, J., Harshfield, A., Saunders, C., Sharp, S., Emery, J., Walter, F., Muir, K., & et al. (2018). External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank.. British journal of cancer, 118 (5), 750-759. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2017.463
Background This study aimed to compare and externally validate risk scores developed to predict incident colorectal cancer (CRC) that include variables routinely available or easily obtainable via self-completed questionnaire. Methods External validation of fourteen risk models from a previous systematic review in 373,164 men and women within the UK Biobank cohort with 5 year follow-up, no prior history of CRC and data for incidence of CRC through linkage to national cancer registries. Results There were 1,719 (0.46%) cases of incident CRC. The performance of the risk models varied substantially. In men, the QCancer10 model and models by Tao, Driver and Ma all had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.67 and 0.70. Discrimination was lower in women: the QCancer10, Wells, Tao and Ma models were the best performing with AUCs between 0.64-0.66. Assessment of calibration was possible for six models in men and women. All would require country-specific recalibration if estimates of absolute risks were to be given to individuals. Conclusion Several risk models based on easily obtainable data have relatively good discrimination in a UK population. Modelling studies are now required to estimate the potential health benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing stratified risk-based CRC screening.
Humans, Colorectal Neoplasms, Registries, Incidence, Risk Assessment, Models, Theoretical, Aged, Middle Aged, Biological Specimen Banks, Female, Male, Early Detection of Cancer, Surveys and Questionnaires, United Kingdom
Department of Health (via National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)) (NF-SI-0515-10119)
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External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2017.463
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/271841
Attribution 4.0 International
Licence URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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