Developing a novel risk prediction model for severe malarial anemia.
Publication Date
2017Journal Title
Glob Health Epidemiol Genom
ISSN
2054-4200
Publisher
Hindawi Limited
Volume
2
Pages
e14
Language
eng
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Physical Medium
Electronic-eCollection
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Brickley, E., Kabyemela, E., Kurtis, J., Fried, M., Wood, A., & Duffy, P. (2017). Developing a novel risk prediction model for severe malarial anemia.. Glob Health Epidemiol Genom, 2 e14. https://doi.org/10.1017/gheg.2017.8
Abstract
As a pilot study to investigate whether personalized medicine approaches could have value for the reduction of malaria-related mortality in young children, we evaluated questionnaire and biomarker data collected from the Mother Offspring Malaria Study Project birth cohort (Muheza, Tanzania, 2002-2006) at the time of delivery as potential prognostic markers for pediatric severe malarial anemia. Severe malarial anemia, defined here as a Plasmodium falciparum infection accompanied by hemoglobin levels below 50 g/L, is a key manifestation of life-threatening malaria in high transmission regions. For this study sample, a prediction model incorporating cord blood levels of interleukin-1β provided the strongest discrimination of severe malarial anemia risk with a C-index of 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84), whereas a pragmatic model based on sex, gravidity, transmission season at delivery, and bed net possession yielded a more modest C-index of 0.63 (95% CI 0.54-0.71). Although additional studies, ideally incorporating larger sample sizes and higher event per predictor ratios, are needed to externally validate these prediction models, the findings provide proof of concept that risk score-based screening programs could be developed to avert severe malaria cases in early childhood.
Sponsorship
Medical Research Council (G0701619)
Embargo Lift Date
2100-01-01
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/gheg.2017.8
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/273921
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