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Alternative Asymptotics for Cointegration Tests in Large VARs

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Onatski, A 
Wang, C 

Abstract

Johansen's (1988, 1991) likelihood ratio test for cointegration rank of a Gaussian VAR depends only on the squared sample canonical correlations between current changes and past levels of a simple transformation of the data. We study the asymptotic behavior of the empirical distribution of those squared canonical correlations when the number of observations and the dimensionality of the VAR diverge to infinity simultaneously and proportionally. We find that the distribution almost surely weakly converges to the so-called Wachter distribution. This finding provides a theoretical explanation for the observed tendency of Johansen's test to find "spurious cointegration". It also sheds light on the workings and limitations of the Bartlett correction approach to the over-rejection problem. We propose a simple graphical device, similar to the scree plot, for a preliminary assessment of cointegration in high-dimensional VARs.

Description

Keywords

math.ST, math.ST, stat.TH, 60B20, 60F05, G.3

Journal Title

Econometrica

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0012-9682
1468-0262

Volume Title

86

Publisher

The Econometric Society