Contextualising Safety in Numbers: a longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011.
Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention
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Aldred, R., Goel, R., Woodcock, J., & Goodman, A. (2019). Contextualising Safety in Numbers: a longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011.. Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention, 25 (3), 236-241. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042498
Abstract The ‘Safety in Numbers’ (SiN) phenomenon refers to a decline of injury risk per time or distance exposed as use of a mode increases. It has been demonstrated for cycling using cross-sectional data, but little evidence exists as to whether the effect applies longitudinally – i.e. whether changes in cycling levels correlate with changes in per-cyclist injury risks. This paper examines cross-sectional and longitudinal SiN effects in 202 local authorities in Britain, using commuting data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses plus police-recorded data on ‘killed and seriously injured’ (KSI) road traffic injuries. We modelled a log-linear relationship between number of injuries and number of cycle commuters. This finds a cross-sectional SiN effect exists in the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Census. Secondly, we conducted longitudinal analysis to examine whether local authorities where commuter cycling increased became safer (and vice versa). We again found a SiN effect, i.e. places where cycling increased were more likely to become safer than places where it had declined. Finally, we place these longitudinal results in the context of changes in pedestrian, cyclist, and motorist safety. While between 1991-2001 all modes saw declines in risk (37% for pedestrians, 36% for cyclists, and 27% for motor vehicle users), between 2001-2011 pedestrians and motorists saw even more substantial declines (41% and 49%) while risk for cyclists increased by 4%. This indicates the SiN mechanism can coexist with cyclist injury risk increasing both in absolute terms and in relation to other modes.
Humans, Trauma Severity Indices, Longitudinal Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, Environment Design, Safety, Accidents, Traffic, Bicycling, Motor Vehicles, Spatial Analysis, United Kingdom
Wellcome Trust (087636/Z/08/Z)
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J022101/1)
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042498
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/277567
Attribution 4.0 International
Licence URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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