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dc.contributor.authorAldred, Rachelen
dc.contributor.authorGoel, Rahulen
dc.contributor.authorWoodcock, Jamesen
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Annaen
dc.date.accessioned2018-06-27T13:56:30Z
dc.date.available2018-06-27T13:56:30Z
dc.date.issued2019-06en
dc.identifier.issn1353-8047
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/277567
dc.description.abstractAbstract The ‘Safety in Numbers’ (SiN) phenomenon refers to a decline of injury risk per time or distance exposed as use of a mode increases. It has been demonstrated for cycling using cross-sectional data, but little evidence exists as to whether the effect applies longitudinally – i.e. whether changes in cycling levels correlate with changes in per-cyclist injury risks. This paper examines cross-sectional and longitudinal SiN effects in 202 local authorities in Britain, using commuting data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses plus police-recorded data on ‘killed and seriously injured’ (KSI) road traffic injuries. We modelled a log-linear relationship between number of injuries and number of cycle commuters. This finds a cross-sectional SiN effect exists in the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Census. Secondly, we conducted longitudinal analysis to examine whether local authorities where commuter cycling increased became safer (and vice versa). We again found a SiN effect, i.e. places where cycling increased were more likely to become safer than places where it had declined. Finally, we place these longitudinal results in the context of changes in pedestrian, cyclist, and motorist safety. While between 1991-2001 all modes saw declines in risk (37% for pedestrians, 36% for cyclists, and 27% for motor vehicle users), between 2001-2011 pedestrians and motorists saw even more substantial declines (41% and 49%) while risk for cyclists increased by 4%. This indicates the SiN mechanism can coexist with cyclist injury risk increasing both in absolute terms and in relation to other modes.
dc.format.mediumPrint-Electronicen
dc.languageengen
dc.publisherBMJ
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectHumansen
dc.subjectTrauma Severity Indicesen
dc.subjectLongitudinal Studiesen
dc.subjectCross-Sectional Studiesen
dc.subjectEnvironment Designen
dc.subjectSafetyen
dc.subjectAccidents, Trafficen
dc.subjectBicyclingen
dc.subjectMotor Vehiclesen
dc.subjectSpatial Analysisen
dc.subjectUnited Kingdomen
dc.titleContextualising Safety in Numbers: a longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011.en
dc.typeArticle
prism.endingPage241
prism.issueIdentifier3en
prism.publicationDate2019en
prism.publicationNameInjury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Preventionen
prism.startingPage236
prism.volume25en
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.24885
dcterms.dateAccepted2017-10-22en
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042498en
rioxxterms.versionVoR*
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2019-06en
dc.contributor.orcidGoel, Rahul [0000-0002-4189-021X]
dc.contributor.orcidWoodcock, James [0000-0003-4769-5375]
dc.identifier.eissn1475-5785
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen
pubs.funder-project-idWellcome Trust (087636/Z/08/Z)
pubs.funder-project-idMRC (MR/K023187/1)
pubs.funder-project-idMRC (MR/P024408/1)
pubs.funder-project-idMRC (MR/P02663X/1)
pubs.funder-project-idESRC (ES/G007462/1)
pubs.funder-project-idEconomic and Social Research Council (ES/J022101/1)


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Attribution 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution 4.0 International