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Brexit and its possible implications for the UK economy and its regions: A post-Keynesian perspective

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

McCombie, JSL 
Spreafico, MRM 

Abstract

This paper discusses the implications of Brexit for both the UK and its regions, as the latter depends on the former. We concentrate on the forecasts by Her Majesty's Treasury (HMT), the Cambridge Centre for Business Research and the Economists for Brexit. It is argued that the estimates of HMT of the loss of GDP are likely to be overstated, but, nevertheless, there will probably be a fall in output. Given this, the effect on the UK regions is analysed using the regional balance-of-payments constrained growth model. This suggests that Brexit will cause regional disparities to widen.

Description

Keywords

balance-of-payments constrained growth model, Brexit, macroeconomic forecasts, North-South divide, UK regions

Journal Title

Papers in Regional Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1056-8190
1435-5957

Volume Title

97

Publisher

Wiley