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dc.contributor.authorUsher-Smith, Julieten
dc.contributor.authorSharp, Stephenen
dc.contributor.authorLuben, Roberten
dc.contributor.authorGriffin, Simonen
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-05T12:51:49Z
dc.date.available2018-09-05T12:51:49Z
dc.date.issued2019-01en
dc.identifier.issn1055-9965
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279659
dc.description.abstractBackground - Most risk models for cancer are either specific to individual cancers or include complex or predominantly non-modifiable risk factors. Methods - We developed lifestyle-based models for the five cancers for which the most cases are potentially preventable through lifestyle change in the UK (lung, colorectal, bladder, kidney and oesophageal for men and breast, lung, colorectal, endometrial and kidney for women). We selected lifestyle risk factors from the European Code against Cancer and obtained estimates of relative risks from meta-analyses of observational studies. We used mean values for risk factors from nationally representative samples and mean 10-year estimated absolute risks from routinely available sources. We then assessed the performance of the models in 23,768 participants in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort who had no history of the five selected cancers at baseline. Results - In men the combined risk model showed good discrimination (AUC: 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.73) and calibration. Discrimination was lower in women (AUC: 0.59 95% CI 0.57 – 0.61) but calibration was good. In both sexes the individual models for lung cancer had the highest AUCs (0.83, 95%CI 0.80-0.85 for men and 0.82, 95%CI 0.76-0.87 for women). The lowest AUCs were for breast cancer in women and kidney cancer in men. Conclusions - The discrimination and calibration of the models are both reasonable, with the discrimination for individual cancers comparable or better than many other published risk models. Impact - These models could be used to demonstrate the potential impact of lifestyle change on risk of cancer to promote behaviour change.
dc.format.mediumPrint-Electronicen
dc.languageengen
dc.publisherAmerican Association for Cancer Research
dc.subjectHumansen
dc.subjectNeoplasmsen
dc.subjectPrognosisen
dc.subjectIncidenceen
dc.subjectRisk Assessmenten
dc.subjectRisk Factorsen
dc.subjectCohort Studiesen
dc.subjectFollow-Up Studiesen
dc.subjectHealth Behavioren
dc.subjectLife Styleen
dc.subjectModels, Theoreticalen
dc.subjectAdulten
dc.subjectAgeden
dc.subjectMiddle Ageden
dc.subjectFemaleen
dc.subjectMaleen
dc.subjectUnited Kingdomen
dc.titleDevelopment and Validation of Lifestyle-Based Models to Predict Incidence of the Most Common Potentially Preventable Cancers.en
dc.typeArticle
prism.endingPage75
prism.issueIdentifier1en
prism.publicationDate2019en
prism.publicationNameCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncologyen
prism.startingPage67
prism.volume28en
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.27027
dcterms.dateAccepted2018-08-20en
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1158/1055-9965.epi-18-0400en
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2019-01en
dc.contributor.orcidUsher-Smith, Juliet [0000-0002-8501-2531]
dc.contributor.orcidSharp, Stephen [0000-0003-2375-1440]
dc.contributor.orcidLuben, Robert [0000-0002-5088-6343]
dc.contributor.orcidGriffin, Simon [0000-0002-2157-4797]
dc.identifier.eissn1538-7755
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen
pubs.funder-project-idCancer Research UK (21464)
pubs.funder-project-idDepartment of Health (via National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)) (NF-SI-0515-10119)
pubs.funder-project-idMRC (MC_UU_12015/4)
pubs.funder-project-idMRC (G0401527)
pubs.funder-project-idMRC (G1000143)
pubs.funder-project-idMRC (MC_UU_12015/1)
pubs.funder-project-idCancer Research UK (A8257)
rioxxterms.freetoread.startdate2019-09-13


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