Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Stress Tests in China

Abstract

This paper examines the vulnerability of commercial banks in China to the changes in macroeconomic conditions by employing a macroeconomic stress test. We particularly focus on how the changes in housing market related variables and the scale of shadow banking influence the credit risks of China’s entire banking system. Based on the result of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, we proceed with a five-scenario analysis. Our main finding is the ability of shadow banking to absorb the credit risks of commercial banks rather than there being a spill over effect, according to the data from Q1 2005 to Q2 2016.1 Moreover, the mortgage loan is risky to commercial banks during this period. In addition, our scenario analysis suggests that China’s banking system is relatively stable and that the Central Bank of China is capable of monitoring the credit risks of commercial banks using appropriate credit policies.