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Formulating Expectations for Future Water Availability through Infrastructure Development Decisions in Arid Regions

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Siddiqi, Afreen 
Ereiqat, Farah 
Anadon, Laura Diaz 

Abstract

jats:titleABSTRACT</jats:title>jats:pWater resources development options are usually selected on a least‐cost basis. While economic considerations are dominant in choosing projects, there are also a mix of other factors including social demands, political viability, social equity, and environmental considerations that impact final decisions and development of water supply systems. Understanding local priorities in water resource management decisions can allow for forming expectations of future regional water availability through new infrastructure projects. In this research, we propose that future human mediated water availability in arid regions may be assessed by considering key projects that have been identified or proposed by regional experts and organizations. Using Multicriteria Decision Methods as a framework to organize a set of decision criteria and their relative salience, the likelihood of selection (and development) of a project can be determined and used to form expectations of future regional water availability. We apply this approach in a case study of Jordan, and find that large‐scale desalination projects—that have been in the planning books for decades—are now most likely to be pursued and implemented in the country. Finally, we discuss strengths, limitations, and the general applicability of this method for assessing future water availability in other arid regions.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

40 Engineering, 4010 Engineering Practice and Education, Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Behavioral and Social Science, 6 Clean Water and Sanitation

Journal Title

Systems Engineering

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1098-1241
1520-6858

Volume Title

19

Publisher

Wiley