Useful energy balance for the UK: An uncertainty analysis
View / Open Files
Publication Date
2018-10-15Journal Title
Applied Energy
ISSN
0306-2619
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
228
Pages
176-188
Type
Article
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Paoli, L., Lupton, R., & Cullen, J. (2018). Useful energy balance for the UK: An uncertainty analysis. Applied Energy, 228 176-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.06.063
Abstract
The use of Useful energy as an energy indicator for sustainability and energy efficiency policy making has been advocated for since the 1970s. Useful energy is the energy delivered by conversion devices in the form required to provide an energy service. This indicator has not been employed mainly because of concern over the reliability of the underlying data, however its uncertainty has never been quantified. This study is a first attempt to rigorously quantify the uncertainty that is associated with Final and Useful energy balances. A novel methodology based on a Bayesian approach is developed, previously unpublished data about average end-use conversion device efficiency is compiled and the Useful energy balance of the United Kingdom is calculated. The uncertainty analysis shows that the largest source of uncertainty is the allocation to energy end-uses, where the uncertainty of the energy flows goes from a median value of 5% to one of 34%. Useful energy consumption for transport and for heating has low uncertainty (4%-10%) (4–10%) and overall, 85% of consumption has uncertainties below an accepTable acceptable 25% threshold. Increased availability of energy consumption sensing technology will enable the improvement of end-use energy statistics. If governments and statistical offices seize this opportunity, Useful energy has the potential to become an important indicator for the development of energy efficiency policies and thus help stimulate policy action in end-use sectors.
Sponsorship
EPSRC (1622086)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/M506485/1)
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.06.063
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/280026
Rights
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Licence URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Statistics
Total file downloads (since January 2020). For more information on metrics see the
IRUS guide.