Repository logo
 

Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Change log

Authors

Anadon, Laura Diaz 
Baker, Erin 
Bosetti, Valentina 
Aleluia Reis, Lara 

Abstract

Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be cost reductions resulting from R&D and report median cost reductions around 20 % for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the improvements associated to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. We conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.

Description

Keywords

46 Information and Computing Sciences, 4407 Policy and Administration, 44 Human Society, 7 Affordable and Clean Energy, 9 Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

Journal Title

Climatic Change

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0165-0009
1573-1480

Volume Title

136

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC