Methods and contexts: Challenges of planning with scenarios in a hospital's division

Abstract

Scenario planning is presented as a well-suited approach in uncertain environments such as healthcare systems. In this article, we report a project aimed at defining scenarios in the cancer division of a large hospital. The approach chosen was based on La Prospective school of scenario planning. The project stopped before scenarios could be elaborated, for lack of knowledge available on contextual factors influencing the system. From the analysis of this case study, we elaborate on the adequacy of scenario planning in the context of small healthcare delivery organisations. We conclude that most forms of scenario planning are unlikely to work in these cases, especially in the La Prospective approach. Perspectives are drawn for scenario planning in hospitals, and for research on the fit between scenario approaches and application contexts, in order to understand what approaches work in which circumstances.