Preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers by increasing physical activity in Brazil: perspectives from plausible counterfactual scenarios
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Authors
Machado de Rezende, Leandro Fórnias
Mielke, Grégore Iven
Hoon Lee, Dong
Wu, Kana
Giovannucci, Edward
Eluf-Neto, José
Journal Title
Cancer Epidemiology
ISSN
1877-7821
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
56
Pages
38-45
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Metadata
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Machado de Rezende, L. F., Totaro Garcia, L., Mielke, G. I., Hoon Lee, D., Wu, K., Giovannucci, E., & Eluf-Neto, J. (2018). Preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers by increasing physical activity in Brazil: perspectives from plausible counterfactual scenarios. Cancer Epidemiology, 56 38-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2018.07.006
Abstract
Background: Physical activity is associated with lower risk of colon and breast cancers. Herein we estimated preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity to different counterfactual scenarios.
Methods: We used data from a representative national survey in Brazil and corresponding relative risks of colon and postmenopausal breast cancers from a meta-analysis. Estimated cancer incidence was retrieved from GLOBOCAN and Brazilian National Cancer Institute. Five counterfactual scenarios for physical activity were considered: (i) theoretical minimum risk exposure level (≥8,000 metabolic equivalent of tasks-minute/week – MET-min/week); (ii) physical activity recommendation (≥600 MET-min/week); (iii) a 10% reduction in prevalence of insufficient physical inactivity (<600 MET-min/week); (iv) physical activity level in each state equals the most active state in Brazil; (v) closing the gender differences in physical activity.
Results: About 19% (3,630 cases) of colon cancers and 12% (6,712 cases) of postmenopausal breast cancers could be prevented by increasing physical activity to ≥8,000 MET-min/week. Plausible counterfactual scenarios suggested the following impact on cancer prevention: reaching physical activity recommendation: 1.3% (1,113 cases) of breast and 6% (1,137 cases) of colon; 10% reduction in physical inactivity prevalence: 0.2% (111 cases) of breast and 0.6% (114 cases) of colon; most active state scenario: 0.3% (168 cases) of breast and 1% (189 cases) of colon; reducing gender differences in physical activity: 1.1% (384 cases) of breast and 0.6% (122 cases) of colon.
Conclusions: High levels of physical activity are required to achieve sizable impact on breast and colon cancer prevention in Brazil.
Sponsorship
MRC (MR/K023187/1)
ESRC (ES/G007462/1)
Wellcome Trust (087636/Z/08/Z)
MRC (MR/L501438/1)
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2018.07.006
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/286014
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International, Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Licence URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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