Preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers by increasing physical activity in Brazil: perspectives from plausible counterfactual scenarios
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Authors
Machado de Rezende, Leandro Fórnias
Totaro Garcia, LM
Mielke, Grégore Iven
Hoon Lee, Dong
Wu, Kana
Giovannucci, Edward
Eluf-Neto, José
Publication Date
2018-10Journal Title
Cancer Epidemiology
ISSN
1877-7821
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
56
Pages
38-45
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Machado de Rezende, L. F., Totaro Garcia, L., Mielke, G. I., Hoon Lee, D., Wu, K., Giovannucci, E., & Eluf-Neto, J. (2018). Preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers by increasing physical activity in Brazil: perspectives from plausible counterfactual scenarios. Cancer Epidemiology, 56 38-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2018.07.006
Abstract
Background: Physical activity is associated with lower risk of colon and breast cancers. Herein we estimated preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity to different counterfactual scenarios.
Methods: We used data from a representative national survey in Brazil and corresponding relative risks of colon and postmenopausal breast cancers from a meta-analysis. Estimated cancer incidence was retrieved from GLOBOCAN and Brazilian National Cancer Institute. Five counterfactual scenarios for physical activity were considered: (i) theoretical minimum risk exposure level (≥8,000 metabolic equivalent of tasks-minute/week – MET-min/week); (ii) physical activity recommendation (≥600 MET-min/week); (iii) a 10% reduction in prevalence of insufficient physical inactivity (<600 MET-min/week); (iv) physical activity level in each state equals the most active state in Brazil; (v) closing the gender differences in physical activity.
Results: About 19% (3,630 cases) of colon cancers and 12% (6,712 cases) of postmenopausal breast cancers could be prevented by increasing physical activity to ≥8,000 MET-min/week. Plausible counterfactual scenarios suggested the following impact on cancer prevention: reaching physical activity recommendation: 1.3% (1,113 cases) of breast and 6% (1,137 cases) of colon; 10% reduction in physical inactivity prevalence: 0.2% (111 cases) of breast and 0.6% (114 cases) of colon; most active state scenario: 0.3% (168 cases) of breast and 1% (189 cases) of colon; reducing gender differences in physical activity: 1.1% (384 cases) of breast and 0.6% (122 cases) of colon.
Conclusions: High levels of physical activity are required to achieve sizable impact on breast and colon cancer prevention in Brazil.
Keywords
Cancer, Epidemiology, Physical activity, Population attributable fraction, Brazil, Breast Neoplasms, Colonic Neoplasms, Exercise, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Risk Factors
Sponsorship
Medical Research Council (MR/K023187/1)
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/G007462/1)
Wellcome Trust (087636/Z/08/Z)
MRC (MR/L501438/1)
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2018.07.006
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/286014
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International, Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Licence URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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