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Bayesian forecasting of mortality rates by using latent Gaussian models

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Alexopoulos, Angelis  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5723-6570
Dellaportas, P 
Forster, JJ 

Abstract

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled through a Gaussian Markov random field. We use efficient Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters and the latent states of the proposed models. Both methodologies are tested with past data and are used to forecast mortality rates both for large (UK and Wales) and small (New Zealand) populations up to 21 years ahead. We demonstrate that predictions for individual survivor functions and other posterior summaries of demographic and actuarial interest are readily obtained. Our results are compared with other competing forecasting methods.

Description

Keywords

Actuarial science, Demography, Heligman-Pollard model, Markov random field

Journal Title

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0964-1998
1467-985X

Volume Title

182

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)