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dc.contributor.authorZylberberg, Arielen
dc.contributor.authorWolpert, Danielen
dc.contributor.authorShadlen, Michaelen
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-08T00:31:21Z
dc.date.available2019-02-08T00:31:21Z
dc.date.issued2017-11-30en
dc.identifier.issn0896-6273
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/288927
dc.description.abstractAccurate decisions require knowledge of prior probabilities (e.g., prevalence or base rate) but it is unclear how prior probability is learned in the absence of a teacher. We hypothesized that humans could learn base rates from experience making decisions, even without feedback. Participants made difficult decisions about the direction of dynamic random dot motion. For each block of 15-42 trials, the base rate favored left or right by a different amount. Participants were not informed of the base rate, yet they gradually biased their choices and thereby increased accuracy and confidence in their decisions. They achieved this by updating knowledge of base rate after each decision, using a counterfactual representation of confidence that simulates a neutral prior. The strategy is consistent with Bayesian updating of belief and suggests that humans represent both true confidence, that incorporates the evolving belief of the prior, and counterfactual confidence that discounts the prior.
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleCounterfactual reasoning underlies the learning of priors in decision makingen
dc.typeArticle
prism.publicationDate2017en
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.36190
dcterms.dateAccepted2018-07-10en
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1101/227421en
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2017-11-30en
dc.contributor.orcidZylberberg, Ariel [0000-0002-2572-4748]
dc.contributor.orcidWolpert, Daniel [0000-0003-2011-2790]
dc.contributor.orcidShadlen, Michael [0000-0002-2002-2210]
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen


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Attribution 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution 4.0 International