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Resource Allocation for Epidemic Control Across Multiple Sub-populations.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Dangerfield, Ciara E  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0055-1270
Vyska, Martin 
Gilligan, Christopher A 

Abstract

The number of pathogenic threats to plant, animal and human health is increasing. Controlling the spread of such threats is costly and often resources are limited. A key challenge facing decision makers is how to allocate resources to control the different threats in order to achieve the least amount of damage from the collective impact. In this paper we consider the allocation of limited resources across n independent target populations to treat pathogens whose spread is modelled using the susceptible-infected-susceptible model. Using mathematical analysis of the systems dynamics, we show that for effective disease control, with a limited budget, treatment should be focused on a subset of populations, rather than attempting to treat all populations less intensively. The choice of populations to treat can be approximated by a knapsack-type problem. We show that the knapsack closely approximates the exact optimum and greatly outperforms a number of simpler strategies. A key advantage of the knapsack approximation is that it provides insight into the way in which the economic and epidemiological dynamics affect the optimal allocation of resources. In particular using the knapsack approximation to apportion control takes into account two important aspects of the dynamics: the indirect interaction between the populations due to the shared pool of limited resources and the dependence on the initial conditions.

Description

Keywords

Epidemiological modelling, Metapopulation model, Optimal control of epidemics, Algorithms, Animals, Epidemics, Forests, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Humans, Mathematical Concepts, Models, Biological, Plant Diseases, Resource Allocation

Journal Title

Bull Math Biol

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0092-8240
1522-9602

Volume Title

81

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Sponsorship
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/L01243X/1)