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Currency regimes and the carry trade

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Accominotti, O 
Cen, J 
Chambers, AD 
Marsh, IW 

Abstract

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders.

Description

Keywords

carry trade, Exchange Rate Regime

Journal Title

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1756-6916
1756-6916

Volume Title

54

Publisher

Cambridge University Press
Sponsorship
We are indebted to Cambridge University’s Centre for Endowment Asset Management (CEAM), Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF), and London School of Economics’ Research Infrastructure and Investment Funds (RIIF) for financial support.
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