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dc.contributor.authorYumashev, Dmitryen
dc.contributor.authorHope, Chrisen
dc.contributor.authorSchaefer, Kevinen
dc.contributor.authorRiemann-Campe, Kathrinen
dc.contributor.authorIglesias-Suarez, Fernandoen
dc.contributor.authorJafarov, Elchinen
dc.contributor.authorBurke, Eleanor Jen
dc.contributor.authorYoung, Paul Jen
dc.contributor.authorElshorbany, Yasinen
dc.contributor.authorWhiteman, Gailen
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-08T23:30:08Z
dc.date.available2019-05-08T23:30:08Z
dc.date.issued2019-12en
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/292552
dc.description.abstractArctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work is part of the ICE-ARC project funded by the European Union’s 7th Framework Programme, (grant 603887, contribution 006). D.Y. received additional funding from ERIM, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and Paul Ekins at the ISR, University College London. K.S. was funded by NSF (grant 1503559) and NASA (grants NNX14A154G, NNX17AC59A). E.J. was funded by the NGEE Arctic project supported by the BER Office of Science at the U.S. DOE. Y.E. was funded by the NSF (grant 1900795). E.B. was supported by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and DEFRA.
dc.languageenen
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleClimate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elementsen
dc.typeArticle
prism.issueIdentifier1en
prism.number1900en
prism.publicationDate2019en
prism.publicationNameNature Communicationsen
prism.volume10en
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.39713
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-04-04en
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/s41467-019-09863-xen
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2019-12en
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen
pubs.funder-project-idEC FP7 CP (603887)
cam.issuedOnline2019-04-23en


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Attribution 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution 4.0 International