Global Effect Factors for Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter.

Abstract

Abstract We evaluate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure-response models to propose a consistent set of global effect factors for product and policy assessments across regions and spatial scales. Relationships among exposure concentrations and PM2.5-attributable health effects largely depend on location, population density, and mortality rates. Existing effect factors build mostly on an essentially linear exposure-response function with coefficients from the American Cancer Society study. In contrast, the Global Burden of Disease analysis offers a non-linear Integrated Exposure-Response (IER) model with coefficients derived from numerous epidemiological studies covering a wide range of exposure concentrations. We explore the IER, additionally provide a simplified regression as function of PM2.5 level, mortality rates and severity, and compare results with effect factors derived from the recently published Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Uncertainty in effect factors is dominated by the exposure-response shape, background mortality, and geographic variability. Our central IER-based effect factor estimates for different regions do not differ substantially from previous estimates. However, IER estimates exhibit significant variability by location, driven primarily by PM2.5 concentrations and mortality rates variations. Using the IER as basis for effect factors presents a consistent picture of global PM2.5-related effects for use in product and policy assessment frameworks.

Keywords: PM2.5, effect factors, air pollution, life cycle impact assessment, health impact assessment