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Does Evolutionary History Correlate with Contemporary Extinction Risk by Influencing Range Size Dynamics?

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

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Type

Article

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Authors

Tanentzap, Andrew J 
Igea, Javier 
Johnston, Matthew G 
Larcombe, Matthew J 

Abstract

Extinction threatens many species yet is predicted by few factors across the plant tree of life (ToL). Taxon age is one factor that may associate with extinction if occupancy of geographic and adaptive zones varies with time, but evidence for such an association has been equivocal. Age-dependent occupancy can also influence diversification rates and thus extinction risk where new taxa have small range and population sizes. To test how age, diversification, and range size were correlated with extinction, we analyzed 639 well-sampled genera representing 8,937 species from across the plant ToL. We found a greater proportion of species were threatened by contemporary extinction in younger and faster-diversifying genera. When we directly tested how range size mediated this pattern in two large, well-sampled groups, our results varied. In conifers, potential range size was smaller in older species and was correlated with higher extinction risk. Age on its own had no direct effect on extinction when accounting for its influence on range size. In palm species, age was neither directly nor indirectly correlated with extinction risk. Our results suggest that range size dynamics may explain differing patterns of extinction risk across the ToL, with consequences for biodiversity conservation.

Description

Keywords

conservation, environmental change, macroecology, macroevolution, phylogenetics, Biological Evolution, Climate Change, Conservation of Natural Resources, Extinction, Biological, Genetic Speciation, Models, Biological, Plant Dispersal, Population Density, Species Specificity

Journal Title

Am Nat

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0003-0147
1537-5323

Volume Title

195

Publisher

University of Chicago Press

Rights

All rights reserved